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marcoferrante

Climate change: 2050


I have always been an avid reader. I don’t know if it’s because I grew up surrounded by books, but they attract me like a magnet attracts iron. I read virtually everything, although I am particularly interested in classics, poetry, and science books. Imagine my happiness when (I think it was 2015) my former PhD supervisor told me that he was the new editor of the book review section of Conservation Biology, and we were going to get many, many books for free.


One of the last books I got is The Carbon Code by Brett Favaro. From the title, you can already guess that it is a book about climate change, a topic that interests me. That should interest all of us, actually. For the detailed review of the book, you will have to wait until it is made public and read it on the (freely available) book review section of Cons Bio, which is always a wise thing to do if you like science books. Here I am going to talk about something related to the book, but not the book itself.


Human activities generate an enormous amount of greenhouse gases that modify the climate. I don’t want to discuss the scientific background of how this happens (https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/), or to review the evidence summarised by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (https://www.ipcc.ch/), although I suggest you explore those yourself. What I am going to do is to share a conversation that I had with a good friend and his wife this evening.


If we don’t change our current energy programs we are going to experience massive problems by 2050. The planet will be ~2°C warmer and extreme climatic events (droughts, strong rain, hurricanes, ice melting, rising sea level, etc.) will be more frequent, faster, and intense. If extreme climatic events do not worry you much, think that we rely on a stable climate for agriculture and that we rely on agriculture for food. It matters for all of us. 2050 it’s just 30 years from now; it’s not an imaginably far future. I may be still around by then and my friend’s children will be. If we want to avoid very bad times we must act now for the future, not in 2049.


Here is where we move to the evening with my friends. I asked them why they think we are not taking this issue seriously now that we may be in time to mitigate the impact of our activities. Of course, there are multiple reasons, almost as many as people. Here I want to talk about three of them: excessive faith in technology, mistrust in ecological solutions, and lack of motivation.


Some people believe that technology will save us from whatever challenges the future present. After all, technology is what made Homo sapiens such a successful species today. When I heard this argument I always think about Biosphere 2, a research facility built in Arizona where the major biomes (tropical rainforests, mangroves, savannah, fog deserts, agricultural habitats, and even an ocean with coral reef!) were recreated to test how humans manage to live in such environment (but also to see how well we can reproduce natural systems). Under human-made conditions, humans don’t thrive. The researchers who volunteered for this experiments realised when for unpredictable reasons the level of oxygen inside Biosphere 2 dropped dangerously. History is enlightening. If recreating the conditions for human life is difficult on Earth, forget about doing it on another planet. Do not dream about space shuttle buses transferring 8-10 billion people on Mars: it won’t happen. Surely not by 2050. What we can do is to preserve ecosystems as they are because we already know that it works well for us. At the moment we don’t have any technological solution against climate change, what is needed is a cultural revolution. Which brings me to the next point.


Why are ecological alternatives struggling to become popular? Why are we still driving private cars, for example, or why aren’t we driving electric vehicles massively? My friend’s wife made an interesting observation. Ecological alternatives are not without an impact, people may not consider them real solutions. You still need the material to assemble the vehicle, you have to generate electricity somehow, you need roads were to drive, etc. All true. Let’s be clear, there is no way a person can have no impact. We are alive and we produce CO2 breathing, we need food, and we produce waste. Then you have to add the impact of our activities. However, the fact that a more ecological alternative also pollutes, does not mean that we are justified using energies that are even more polluting. The two things are unrelated. We have to do the best we can.


And finally, there is the point raised by my friend, which was what inspired me to write. He told me that the problem may be that we don’t see the effects of climate change yet. Or more precisely, we see them, but they are not catastrophic enough to trigger an imminent reaction. We are like smokers who need to be scared by a hearth attack before understanding that it’s time to quit. And at this point I questioned myself and I realised that this is not true. Probably there are still people around who think that climate change is a hoax, but I suspect that the majority of us realise that it is real. Yet, we don’t act. Take me for example. I don’t need to experience a catastrophic event. I believe climate change is real. But what I am doing? Is it the best I can do? Maybe not. I might be the culprit. What about you? Do you believe that climate change is real? Or do you need a catastrophic event first?


I am 30 years old and the decisions I am going to take today will have an impact on the status of the world in 2050. The deadline for good behaviour is not 2050, it is now. Environmental dilemmas should be taken seriously; our survival is at stake. So when I wonder if I should buy a car, I should also reflect on the impact of my actions on the climate and figure out if I need a car, and if I do, whether a hybrid or an electric one would be a reasonable compromise. Similarly, I should consider photovoltaic panels in my house, if I can reduce the amount of beef (or meat in general) I consume and the number of flights I take. It does not make sense to fear climate change but do nothing.


Everybody can do several and different things to reduce her environmental impact. One has to decide what to do based on the context, I can’t just tell you what’s right or wrong for you. There is only one thing where I can’t be wrong: bring always a book with you. Books can keep you company, open your mind, and enrich you as a person. And if you are looking for an interesting read remember about The Carbon Code.

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